![]() For the purpose of forecasting, a set of adaptive bilinear time series models has been developed which allows for more robust statistical inference than hitherto proposed in the academic literature on European football betting markets, e.g. This dissertation assesses the informational, semi-strong efficiency of European football betting markets by examining the “forecastability” of a particular game outcome (goal difference) for matches between two football clubs – Bayern Munich and Chelsea – with a subsequent evaluation of the profitability of betting strategies derived from these forecasts. Fixed-odds gambling markets have been put forward repeatedly as a proxy for financial markets in order to examine the efficient markets hypothesis, due to their depth (multitude of events and derived betting proposals), well-defined termination point of transactions and determinism regarding the realisation of returns, i.e. the degree to which prices reflect all available information. Given the highly competitive and risky nature of contemporary financial markets, one of the central issues is their information efficiency, i.e.
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